North Korea test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time in nearly a year on Thursday, signaling a potential enhancement in its capacity to execute long-range nuclear strikes on the U.S. mainland. This launch likely aimed to capture American attention just days before the upcoming U.S. elections and to respond to international condemnation regarding the North's reported troop deployment to Russia in support of its conflict with Ukraine. Some analysts speculate that Russia may have provided technological assistance to North Korea for this launch.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the launch, referring to it as "an appropriate military action" to demonstrate the North's determination to respond to perceived threats against its safety posed by its adversaries, according to state media reports. Kim emphasized that the "various adventurous military maneuvers" by these enemies underscored the critical importance of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. He reiterated that the nation would never abandon its strategy of strengthening its nuclear forces.
North Korea has consistently claimed that enhancing its nuclear capabilities is essential for countering the escalation of U.S.-South Korean military exercises, despite Washington and Seoul repeatedly asserting they have no plans to attack North Korea. Experts suggest that North Korea leverages these rival drills as a pretext to expand its nuclear arsenal, seeking concessions when diplomatic discussions resume.
This North Korean announcement came just hours after neighboring countries reported detecting the North's first ICBM test since December 2023, condemning it as a provocative act that threatens international peace.
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff indicated that North Korea might have tested a new solid-fueled long-range ballistic missile at a steep angle to evade detection by neighboring nations. Missiles equipped with solid propellants are easier to transport and conceal and can be launched more rapidly than their liquid-propellant counterparts.
Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani informed reporters that the missile's flight duration of 86 minutes and its maximum altitude of over 7,000 kilometers (approximately 4,350 miles) surpassed data from previous North Korean missile tests.
The fact that a missile flew higher and for a longer duration than previous tests indicates an improvement in engine thrust. Since earlier ICBM tests by North Korea have already demonstrated the potential to reach the U.S. mainland, experts suggest that the latest launch was likely aimed at assessing whether the missile could accommodate a larger warhead.
Jung Chang Wook, the head of the Korea Defense Study Forum in Seoul, stated that it is reasonable to conclude that the missile involved in Thursday’s launch could carry North Korea's largest and most powerful warhead. He added that the launch was probably intended to test various technological aspects that North Korea needs to master to enhance its ICBM program.
While North Korea has made significant advancements in missile technology in recent years, many foreign analysts believe the country has not yet developed a fully operational nuclear-armed missile capable of striking the U.S. mainland. They maintain that North Korea likely possesses short-range missiles capable of delivering nuclear strikes throughout South Korea.
There are concerns that North Korea might seek assistance from Russia to refine its nuclear-capable missiles, especially in exchange for its reported deployment of thousands of troops to support Russia’s efforts in Ukraine. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin indicated on Wednesday that North Korean troops, dressed in Russian uniforms and equipped with Russian gear, are moving towards Ukraine, describing this as a dangerous and destabilizing situation.
Lee Choon Geun, an honorary research fellow at South Korea’s Science and Technology Policy Institute, noted that initial assessments from Thursday’s launch suggest that Russia may have supplied a crucial propellant component that enhances a missile's engine thrust. He explained that increased thrust enables a missile to carry a heavier payload, maintain better stability during flight, and improve targeting accuracy.
Jung speculated that Russian experts may have provided technical guidance on missile launches following Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to North Korea for a meeting with Kim in June.
Kwon Yong Soo, an honorary professor at South Korea’s National Defense University, suggested that North Korea likely tested a multiple-warhead system for an existing ICBM. "There’s no reason for North Korea to develop a new ICBM when it already possesses several systems with ranges of 10,000 to 15,000 kilometers (6,200 to 9,300 miles) that could reach anywhere on Earth," Kwon stated.
The confirmation from North Korea regarding its ICBM test came unusually swiftly, as the country typically announces its weapons tests a day after they occur.
“North Korea may have believed that its adversaries would look down upon it after it allocated significant military resources to Russia,” said Yang Uk, an expert at South Korea’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies. “The launch might have been intended as a show of capability, independent of troop deployments or other activities.”
U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett condemned the launch as “a blatant violation” of several U.N. Security Council resolutions that “unnecessarily escalate tensions and threaten to destabilize the security situation in the region.” Savett asserted that the U.S. would take all necessary steps to safeguard the American homeland and its allies in South Korea and Japan.
Lee Sung Joon, a spokesperson for the South Korean military, noted that the North Korean missile might have been launched from a 12-axle vehicle, which is the North's largest mobile launch platform. The introduction of this new launch vehicle in September had sparked speculation that North Korea could be developing a larger ICBM than its current models.
On Wednesday, South Korea’s military intelligence agency informed lawmakers that North Korea has likely completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test and is nearing the point of testing an ICBM.
Over the past two years, Kim has taken advantage of Russia's invasion of Ukraine to escalate weapons tests and threats while enhancing military cooperation with Moscow. South Korea, the U.S., and other nations allege that North Korea has already supplied artillery, missiles, and other conventional arms to help replenish Russia's dwindling stockpiles.
North Korea's potential involvement in the Ukraine conflict would represent a significant escalation. In addition to acquiring Russian nuclear and missile technologies, experts believe Kim Jong Un is likely seeking Russian assistance to develop a reliable space-based surveillance system and modernize his conventional weapons. They also suggest that Kim could receive hundreds of millions of dollars from Russia to cover the wages of North Korean soldiers if they are stationed there for a year.
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