Will a U.S.-French Brokered Ceasefire End Israel's 13-Month War with Hezbollah?

A scene from the Israeli-Lebanese conflict

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet with senior cabinet ministers on Tuesday afternoon to discuss a cease-fire deal mediated by U.S. and French diplomats. The agreement aims to end the ongoing conflict that has resulted in thousands of casualties, primarily in Lebanon, and displaced many others.

 

The meeting, set for 4 p.m. local time at Israel's military headquarters in Tel Aviv, will focus on whether to approve a cease-fire with Hezbollah, a move that could potentially bring an end to Israel's 13-month war with the Lebanese militia. Two Israeli officials, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter, indicated that the meeting would involve several hours of deliberation over the proposed cease-fire.

 

The deal would initiate a 60-day process during which both sides would halt hostilities and withdraw from southern Lebanon. Israeli forces would retreat south of the Israel-Lebanon border, while Hezbollah would pull back north of the Litani River, leaving the Lebanese Army, which is not involved in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, to assume control.

 

However, uncertainties remain about how the Lebanese Army would manage Hezbollah, a powerful militia with significant influence in the region. Israel has sought assurances from the U.S. government that it would provide support if Israeli troops needed to return to southern Lebanon in case Hezbollah violates the agreement.

 

While Netanyahu is reportedly in favor of the deal, some members of his coalition, particularly far-right leaders, have expressed strong opposition.

 

Hezbollah's leader, Naim Qassem, suggested last week that the group would accept a cease-fire if Israel ceases its strikes on Lebanon and respects Lebanon's sovereignty.

 

The conflict began in October 2023 when Hezbollah launched attacks on Israeli military positions in solidarity with Hamas, which had recently carried out an assault in southern Israel. Israel's retaliation led to an escalation into a low-intensity war, displacing tens of thousands on both sides of the border. Fighting intensified over the summer as Israel ramped up its strikes on Hezbollah-controlled neighborhoods, killing thousands, including senior Hezbollah commanders. In late September, Israeli forces launched a large-scale ground invasion and captured several villages.

 

The proposed cease-fire would be a formal agreement between Israel, Lebanon, and the mediating nations, including the U.S. Hezbollah, though a key player in the conflict, would not formally be a party to the agreement, with Lebanese officials acting as intermediaries.