How a Perfect Storm Led to Assad's Downfall: The Untold Story of Syria's Rebel Victory

After 13 Years of Conflict: How Syria’s Opposition Toppled Assad

Following over a decade of civil war, Syria’s opposition militias seized a rare opportunity to weaken President Bashar al-Assad’s grip on power. Approximately six months ago, they shared plans for a major offensive with Turkey, sensing Ankara’s tacit approval, according to two sources familiar with the planning.

 

Barely two weeks after its launch, the offensive achieved a swift and surprising victory: the capture of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. This unexpected success allowed the rebel alliance to advance rapidly, culminating in the fall of Damascus and ending five decades of Assad family rule.

 

The rebels’ rapid success stemmed from several factors aligning in their favor. Assad’s forces were demoralized, and his key allies—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah—were distracted or significantly weakened. The regime's military struggled with corruption, logistical failures, and declining morale. Tanks sat idle for lack of fuel, and soldiers faced dire shortages.

 

Turkey’s Role and the Rebels’ Strategy

Turkey, a longstanding supporter of Syria's opposition, played a pivotal yet controversial role. Although Ankara officially denied endorsing the offensive, rebels presented their plans to Turkish officials, arguing that diplomacy with Assad had failed. "You don’t have to intervene, just don’t obstruct us," was the message conveyed, sources said.

 

The operation was spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani. Despite his controversial past with al-Qaeda, Golani has sought to rebrand HTS, managing a quasi-state in Idlib while taxing local activities. Turkey’s Syrian National Army (SNA) also participated, although Ankara classifies HTS as a terrorist organization.

 

HTS’s leadership and organizational strength were critical, but the decisive factor was the regime's vulnerability. The loss of Aleppo triggered a domino effect, with Hama and Homs falling shortly thereafter. Assad’s forces, already stretched thin, could not regroup in time to mount an effective defense.

Regional Dynamics and Wider Implications

The fall of Assad represents a seismic shift in the Middle East. Iran’s influence, bolstered for years by Hezbollah’s intervention, has diminished significantly. Hezbollah, already battered by its conflict with Israel, withdrew key forces from Syria, creating a power vacuum that the rebels exploited.

 

Turkey has emerged as a dominant external player in post-Assad Syria, with troops on the ground and significant sway over rebel factions. Its objectives now include managing Kurdish forces in the northeast, securing territory through the SNA, and facilitating the return of Syrian refugees.

 

The lightning speed of this rebel campaign caught many by surprise. As political scientist Birol Baskan observed, “Turkey is the biggest outside winner here. Erdogan positioned himself on the right side of history as his proxies delivered a decisive victory.”